Donald Trump warns India on massive Russian oil buys, signals substantial tariff hike; what could that mean for trade?

India has been a major buyer of Russian crude oil since the war in Ukraine began. Between January and June 2025, Indian refiners imported over 1.75 million barrels of Russian oil daily, accounting for nearly 36–40% of the country’s overall demand. The discounted rates have helped control inflation and reduce energy import bills.

However, US President Donald Trump criticised India’s continued energy partnership with Russia. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote, “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then... selling it on the open market for big profits.” He added that due to this, he would “substantially raise the tariff paid by India to the USA.”

Trump’s remarks signal broader concerns beyond the Russia-Ukraine conflict, pointing to a shift in Washington’s energy and trade strategy.


Trump’s statement also reflects the growing role of energy politics in US trade policy. His campaign has strong backing from American fossil fuel companies, and recent policy proposals include $18 billion in incentives for the oil and gas sector.


India is becoming a key market for US crude and LNG. American oil exports to India rose by over 50% in the first half of 2025 and now represent 8% of India’s total imports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

By discouraging Russian purchases and encouraging US energy imports, Trump is aiming to support domestic producers while increasing American influence over global energy flows.


Trump’s warning to raise tariffs is seen as a way to pressure India into aligning its energy policy more closely with US interests. Nearly 20% of India’s exports go to the US, covering key industries like pharmaceuticals, textiles, electronics, and auto components.

Analysts believe Trump is using tariffs as leverage rather than direct punishment. If implemented, higher duties could impact Indian export sectors by as much as $18 billion annually cutting margins, increasing costs, and affecting jobs.


A shift away from discounted Russian oil could raise India’s annual crude oil bill by $11 billion, experts estimate. That would likely increase inflation and strain economic growth.

Simultaneously, the risk of tariffs on exports to the US would add further pressure, particularly on small and mid-sized exporters who depend heavily on the American market.


Responding to Trump’s comments, the Ministry of External Affairs clarified that India turned to Russian oil after other traditional suppliers diverted exports to Europe. At that time, the US had supported India’s decisions to maintain global price stability.

"India’s imports are meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer," the MEA said. It also highlighted that EU-Russia trade was much larger than India’s and that the US still imports key Russian goods like uranium, palladium, and fertilisers.

India reaffirmed that it would continue to act in line with its national interests. Its oil policy is shaped by economic needs and the current state of global markets.

Trump’s remarks blend political strategy with economic pressure, linking energy choices and trade to achieve broader US goals. For India, the stakes involve not just oil, but the future of its export-driven economy and global partnerships.

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